Yesterday was quite the day for Venezuela, and I’d like to talk about what this potentially means for the industry, and travel more broadly. I may not have many (any?) answers, but I do have a lot of questions!
US attack on Venezuela leads to aviation chaos
On Saturday (January 3, 2026), we saw the United States launch a military attack on Venezuela, ultimately resulting in the capture of leader Nicolas Maduro and his wife, who have been flown to the United States to face charges.
The Trump administration has stated that the United States will “run” Venezuela, and will tap into the country’s oil reserves. Exact details of what that will look like remains to be seen, but the expectation is that a group of US officials will be named to oversee the country.
Trump said that he’ll decide who the ultimate next leader is, because “we can’t take a chance that somebody else takes over Venezuela that doesn’t have the good of the Venezuelan people in mind,” and “we don’t mind saying it, but we’re going to make sure that that country is run properly.” Trump also made it clear that “we’re not afraid of boots on the ground,” if it’s needed.
I think most of us can agree that Maduro is a bad guy, and he wasn’t looking out for the people of Venezuela. However, I think reasonable people can disagree on the concept of removing a leader from a foreign country, the United States “running” a country and tapping into its oil reserves, and the long term prospects of success for an operation like this. The United States doesn’t exactly have a great track record with “liberating” other countries from their leaders.
But that’s not why I’m writing about this — instead, I want to talk about aviation. The attack on Saturday had major impacts on aviation, as flight restrictions were put in place for Caribbean airspace. This caused tons of flight cancelations in the Caribbean, Central America, and South America, and also a lot of very circuitous routings.
Fortunately those restrictions have now been lifted, so airlines are working to rebuild their schedules, and it should be business as usual within a couple of days.
I’m curious how this situation plays out for aviation & travel
With the Caribbean airspace flight restrictions now lifted, it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out for the airline industry, and travel more broadly. It’s really too early to know what will happen, though here’s what I’m thinking and wondering:
- If the United States needs to have a bigger military operation in Venezuela, that could certainly cause instability for the region again, in terms of the impacts on aviation (just as we saw yesterday)
- While I suspect we won’t see a sudden surge of visitors from the United States to Venezuela, will we see the reestablishment of direct commercial flights between the two countries, or will the United States “running” Venezuela take place largely remotely, via military transport, etc.?
- Depending on how much power is centralized, will it be safer or less safe to travel to Venezuela in the near future, compared to under Maduro? Presumably there are still lots of Maduro-aligned leaders in the country, so could we see retaliatory attacks on Americans, etc.?
- What does this all mean for Venezuelan national carrier Conviasa, which has a fascinating fleet of Airbus A340s? Will the airline no longer fly to Iran, Russia, and Syria?!?
Bottom line
It’s a new dawn for Venezuela, with leader Nicolas Maduro being taken out of power by the United States, and now facing charges. The big question is what this means for the future of the country, and whether a stable transition can actually happen (it’s often easier said than done).
Yesterday was chaotic for airlines in the Americas, given the closure of Caribbean airspace. Fortunately that airspace has now reopened, though it remains to be seen what impacts we see in the coming days, weeks, and months. I’m sure such a major development will have big implications for airlines and travel… the question is which direction things go.
How do you see the Venezuela situation playing out as it impacts airlines and travel?
