Euhan Milhas

United said it was drawing a line in the sand in Chicago, and that it would add flights as American Airlines added them to prevent American from gaining a single gate.

They were explicit that they had not planned to do this, that American would naturally regain some gates. But American’s buildup in 2026 would be met flight-for-flight.
And that United could do this because they’re profitable in Chicago and profitable overall, while American loses money in Chicago (and I’d note that they lose money on their flying, overall).

What I explained is that United Airlines did not actually want to add capacity in Chicago. It would be money-losing capacity. They were announcing this strategy publicly in order to box American in and make it difficult to add flights. Either American would choose not to, because they’d know in advance it wouldn’t benefit their gate position going forward, or they’d do it but Wall Street would force them to back down.

American immediately added flights in Chicago in response to United CEO Scott Kirby’s threat. So – on the morning of American’s earnings call – United announced another build up in Chicago.

The timing of this should be understood as no coincidence. It’s a message clearly aimed at Wall Street to pressure American to back down and back away from O’Hare.

American added flights from Chicago O’Hare to (3) cities last week: Allentown, Pennsyvlania; Columbia, South Carolina; and Maui.
So United is adding flights with even greater frequencies to (5) cities:

• Champaign/Urbana, Ill. (CMI) operated 4 times daily beginning April 30, 2026
• Kalamazoo, Mich. (AZO) operated 4 times daily beginning April 30, 2026
• Lansing, Mich. (LAN) operated 4 times daily beginning May 7, 2026
• La Crosse, Wis. (LSE) operated 4 times daily beginning May 7, 2026
• Bloomington/Normal, Ill. (BMI) operated 4 times daily beginning May 7, 2026

That comes after United already added flights to “Santa Barbara, Calif. (SBA); Monterey, Calif. (MRY); Eugene, Ore. (EUG); Bristol/Tri-Cities, Tenn. (TRI), Erie, Penn. (ERI); Rochester, Minn. (RST); Wausau, Wis. (CWA); Marquette, Mich. (MQT), and more as part of its summer 2026 schedule” and “more than 80 cities will receive additional flights.”

And as an additional flex, United is trotting out Illinois governor J.D. Pritzker in support of its efforts,

The record-breaking expanded flight offerings from United Airlines planned for this coming summer at O’Hare demonstrates the company’s sustained commitment to growth in Illinois – boosting our economy, supporting jobs, and strengthening Chicago’s tourism and hospitality industries.

Now, this is classic anti-competitive behavior.

They’ve signaled their commercial intentions to American to try to restrain competition.
They’re engaged in dumping. United says this tit-for-tat will cost them profit. United further says that commercial realities will set in, which will mean airlines back off of their overscheduling.
That means it’s pump and dump, adding overcapacity to drive out a competitive, planning for a pullback of capacity in the market once they’re defeated.

Here’s Scott Kirby, from their earnings call, on what happens to excess capacity:

Ego usually beats economic gravity in the short term, but economic gravity always wins in the end.

And United’s Andrew Nocella,

I do think eventually businesses stop doing unprofitable things.

Kirby also explained that American ramping up in Chicago, bringing extra capacity to the Chicago market, has already cost them $100 million.

[I]n 2025, even with all that growth, the Chicago RASM outperformed the rest of the system by 1%, and we made a $500 million profit. By the way, I think we probably would have made $600 million. So it probably cost us about $100 million.

To be sure, this is going to be great for Chicago flyers in the short-term. There will be more flight options and lower prices as a result. So, consumer surplus! But don’t get used to the flying. I don’t believe this should be illegal. Antitrust is a mess, and everything is illegal. Remember that,

If you underprice your competitors, that’s a predatory practice.
If your prices are higher, that’s monopoly pricing.
And if your prices are the same, that’s collusion.

Ultimately, anti-dumping isn’t likely to be something pursued by the current administration. Recall that United was a $1 million donor to the President’s inauguration, and Scott Kirby was the only senior airline executive willing to support tariffs, which he doubled down on.