Delta Air Lines has long prided itself in operational reliability, even trademarking the term “The On-Time Machine.” However, is that concept now a thing of the past? New alleged data suggests so…
Delta reportedly overtakes United with flight cancelations
Previous Delta CEO Richard Anderson probably had the biggest impact in turning Delta into what it became. He said that the single biggest thing an airline can do to win brand loyal customers is to operate reliably.
That doesn’t just happen by chance, and Delta invested a ton of money into making reliability a point of differentiation. For years, Delta actually did perform much better than competitors.
For example, in 2018, the airline had 243 consecutive days without a single mainline flight being canceled. Okay, admittedly the airline took some liberties there (by delaying some flights by many hours, rather than canceling them), but the concept is great — reliability was a priority.
I recently covered how Delta was slower to recover from the Northeast storm than competitors, primarily due to the carrier’s bizarre pilot scheduling software and rules. However, JonNYC shares a much bigger picture development, if you ask me.
He shares the year to date cancelation rates for Delta and United, combining mainline and regionals, with mainline flights weighted more heavily than regional flights. With that, United had a 1.15% cancelation rate, while Delta had a 1.22% cancelation rate.
Looking at month to date data at New York City area airports is particularly rough. Delta canceled 5.08% of seats, while United canceled 1.55% of seats. Furthermore, Delta even canceled a higher percentage of flights than JetBlue (5.08% vs. 4.10%), and losing in operational reliability to JetBlue is not a position you want to be in.
Let me emphasize that I haven’t personally seen this data, but JonNYC is incredibly reliable, so I’m inclined to believe it. Even if we were to quibble on some minor points (like how things are weighted), I think the bigger picture message is clear — United has made up a lot of ground when it comes to operational reliability compared to Delta.
Reliability is no longer a competitive advantage for Delta
Going back a decade, the gap in operational reliability between Delta and United was absolutely massive. The airlines weren’t even in the same league on that front, and Delta’s on-time percentage and completion factor eclipsed that of United.
However, as time has gone on, that gap has narrowed enormously. While I’m looking forward to seeing the full-year Department of Transportation statistics in the near future for the definitive numbers, it’s pretty clear that Delta is no longer meaningfully more reliable than United is.
What has contributed to this trend? For one, United has certainly been trying to catch up with Delta more broadly, and that includes with improving operational reliability, and investing in technology that enables that.
But the other thing is that Delta also isn’t as differentiated as it was going back pre-pandemic. I’d attribute this to a few factors:
- Across the board, Delta lost a lot of talent at the start of the pandemic, and the workforce there is a lot more junior than in the past; I just don’t think the corporate culture at the airline is the same as it was at the time, and that has impacted service and reliability
- Former Delta CEO Richard Anderson was a quiet guy who liked working behind the scenes and creating a great airline, while current Delta CEO Ed Bastian just seems more like a guy who is trying to turn Delta into a lifestyle brand, and is focused on things like keynote addresses at CES, hiring Tom Brady as a consultant, etc.; I’m not saying that’s a terrible idea in terms of optics, but he’s just not as focused as Anderson, in my opinion
- More broadly, air traffic control congestion has become a bigger issue as time has gone on, and that creates factors that are outside a carrier’s control, which can impact reliability
Bottom line
Over the years, Delta’s operational reliability has become less of a point of differentiation, in comparison to competitors. Nonetheless, the airline has still remained in the lead among global US carriers. However, JonNYC suggests that this could be the year where that changes, as Delta reportedly has a higher mainline and regional cancelation rate than United.
While we’ll wait for the final data to see the exact details (since this includes mainline and regional flights), one thing is pretty certain — Delta’s operational reliability isn’t what it once was, both in terms of its own performance, and in terms of competitors catching up. At New York area airports this month, the airline massively lagged United, and even lagged JetBlue. Ouch.
What do you make of these Delta reliability claims?
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